BY EZEQUIEL MINAYA & DAVID LOHNOW, Caracas *
Officials say Chávez´s call shows "strength"

Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez, holed up in secrecy in a Cuban hospital, reportedly telephoned a meeting of his ruling party's leadership on Monday, a move that did little to quell growing speculation that the leader is sicker than his government has said.

Several members of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela posted messages on Twitter saying Mr. Chávez contacted them during their meeting to give instructions and offer words of encouragement. Congressman Freddy Bernal said Mr. Chávez spoke with "emotion and strength."

Supporters of the president, who has been in Cuba recovering from a June 10 surgery, said the phone call showed that Mr. Chávez was on the road to recovery from abdominal surgery and still firmly in control.

"We are going to continue with our agenda… within the party and the government, with instructions from the president, Comandante Hugo Chávez Frias," Cilia Flores, a PSUV leader and national congresswoman, said on state television.

Financial markets bet on Monday that Mr. Chávez's health problems could be significant enough to prompt an eventual change of political direction in Venezuela, which took a sharp turn to the left under the former army officer. The price of Venezuela's government bonds rose 2.34% as of Monday afternoon in New York, reflecting that investors are demanding a lower "risk premium" to buy Venezuelan debt.

"Bad health issues for Chávez mean a lot more confidence that Venzuela will change direction on the political side," said strategist Enrique Álvarez of IDEAGlobal.

Apart from Mr. Chávez's reported call and a brief message on Twitter a few days ago, the normally voluble leader hasn't spoken publicly since a brief telephone interview with state television on June 12, two days after his government says he underwent emergency surgery in Havana for a pelvic abscess. Venezuelan officials have offered few details on the leader's health, saying only that he is recovering and will return at some point.

Venezuela has been awash in theories of what ails the flamboyant Mr. Chávez. Many in Venezuela say an abscess, which is a build-up of pus from an infection, in itself isn't very serious and question why the president would need nearly three weeks of hospitalization.
Speculation has ranged from non-life threatening peritonitis, an inflammation of abdominal tissue, to a case of prostate cancer that has metastasized. Venezuelan columnist Nelson Bocaranda, who has said he knows the identity of the leader's doctors, has said Mr. Chávez is receiving hormone and radiation treatment for prostate cancer.

Stratfor, a private intelligence company, says it believes Mr. Chávez has twice been operated on for prostate cancer. The first time, Stratfor says, took place in Caracas in May, when the president unexpectedly canceled a planned trip to Brazil. Citing a "source with a link to the president's medical team," it said the second operation took place in Havana on June 10 when Cuban doctors discovered that the tumor had spread to Mr. Chávez's pelvis. Since then, Stratfor says, Mr. Chávez has been "heavily medicated and in a great deal of pain."

Fernando Soto Rojas, the president of the national legislature, on Sunday denied reports that Mr. Chávez had cancer. "I'd be the first to inform the country [if that were so]," he said in a written statement.

Health rumors and reports of palace intrigue have created a climate of uncertainty in Caracas. The tension heightened over the weekend after Mr. Chávez's older brother, Adán, suggested that supporters of Mr. Chávez might resort to violence to keep power.

Adán Chávez, who is part of his family's political dynasty as governor of the state of Barinas, said the socialist government won power through the ballot box but added that "we cannot forget, as authentic revolutionaries, other methods of fighting."He went on to quote Che Guevara saying that revolutionaries should consider armed struggle in the fight for power rather than just use the ballot box.
Analysts and opposition politicians criticized the comments and said Mr. Chávez's big brother looked as if he were positioning himself to take over should the president become incapacitated.

"That's as irresponsible as it is impertinent," said opposition leader Ramón José Medina. "It seems that Adán Chávez wants to play the role of Raúl Castro played with Fidel Castro—Adán wants his brother to be sick so that he can assume power."

Some analysts and political opponents of Mr. Chávez have speculated that the former tank commander's unusual silence during medical treatment is a ploy to stage a triumphant return to Venezuela during the upcoming celebration of the nation's independence.

What seems sure is that the uncertainty will rise with each passing day that Mr. Chávez remains hidden from view, said Bret Rosen, a Latin American debt analyst at Standard Chartered.

"There's a lot of rumor and innuendo out there. There are people that think he may not be able to continue as president or even if he does come back, that he may not be healthy enough to run in next year's elections," he said.

* For The Wall Street Journal, New York / June 29, 2011
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